人民币跨境流动对我国宏观经济的影响——基于双轨制与IS-LM模型的视角

Influence of RMB Cross-border Flow to China's Macro Economy: Based on the Perspective of Double-track Mechanism and IS-LM Model

本文在剖析人民币跨境流动双轨制特征的基础上,对开放条件下的IS-LM模型进行重新构建,并运用模型分析不同情境下人民币跨境流动的宏观效应。结果表明,如果在允许境外人民币通过证券投资项目回流的同时,并不减少投资者使用外汇资金投资境内资本市场,则与人民币国际化推行之前相比,现行模式将放大境内外利差对国内货币供应的影响,增加资本跨境流动的波动性。

Based on the analysis of the RMB cross-border movement of double track system characteristic, this paper rebuilds the IS-LM model under open conditions, and analyzes the effect of RMB flow under different circumstances. The main conclusion is that, compared with the prior to the internationalization of RMB implementation, if allowed to RMB through securities investment project return, at the same time does not reduce investors＇ use of foreign exchange funds in the capital market, the current model will enlarge the influence of domestic and foreign interest on the domestic money supply and increase the volatility of cross-border capital flows.