估计和预测艾滋病疫情的Spectrum/EPP模型研究进展

Research progress on the spectrum/estimation and projection package(EPP)model for estimating and predicting HIV/AIDS epidemic

估计与预测软件包(EPP)模型和Spectrum模型,是常用的适用于广泛流行和聚集性流行地区的艾滋病疫情估计和预测的模型。2011年后,联合国艾滋病规划署(UNAIDS)将EPP模型与Spectrum模型软件合并(Spectrum/EPP模型),界面亲和,流程简化,并新增了三种曲线拟合模型,改进和更新了模型内部参数等,使其疫情估计和预测更灵活,适用于不同的国家或地区。文章主要介绍Spectrum/EPP模型的结构原理、所需指标、产出结果、操作过程、适用范围、注意事项、优缺点等,为模型的应用提供参考。

Estimation and projection package （EPP） model and spectrum model are two commonly used methods to estimate and predict the HIV/AIDS epidemic, adopted in countries with generalized or concentrated epidemic. The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS （UNAIDS） combined Spectrum and EPP into one software package （Spectrum/EPP model） to enhance ease of use and add three new curve fitting models and update the inner parameters of the model since 2011, which can be very flexible and suitable for different countries or areas. In this paper, we aim to introduce their structural principle, model index, output results, operation process, implementa- tion fields, advantages and disadvantages.