全球化背景下的国际贸易隐含能源研究

Study on Embodied Energy in International Trade against Globalization

为了考察贸易隐含能源在全球范围内的流动情况,本文运用投入产出分析方法,采用GTAP 8.0数据库,从隐含能源的视角对全球能源消费结构重新进行了解剖。结果显示,2007年国际贸易隐含能源约3983Mtoe,占当年世界能源总消耗的34%;基于贸易隐含能源的视角,中国不再是能源净进口国,2007年中国隐含能源净出口量约为514Mtoe,在所有国家中最高;相比生产端核算原则,基于消费者统计口径,中国和印度能源消费分别下降25%和11%,美国和日本能源消费分别增长9%和17%。本文的结果显示,在世界能源消费重心东移的背景下,亚太地区直接能源净进口量中的53%会以贸易隐含能源的形式再次净出口至欧洲和北美地区。

To investigate the circulation of embodied energy in trade against the globalization background, this paper uses an input-output approach to re-de- compose the global energy consumption structure based on the GTAP 8.0 data- base. The research results indicate that the energy embodied in international trade is 3983 Mtoe （million tons of oil equivalents） in 2007, accounting for 34% of to- tal global energy consumption that year. From the perspective of embodied ener- gy in trade, China is the largest exporter of embodied energy, with an embodied volume of 514 Mtoe. Compared to production-based accounting, the energy con- sumption of China and India will decrease respectively by 25% and 11% in con- sumption-based accounting, while that for the US and Japan will increase respec- tively by 9% and 17%. This paper also finds that although the Asia-Pacific domi- nates the global energy consumption in recent years, nearly 53% of the net di- rect energy imports of the Asia-Pacific will be transferred to the European Union and the North America.