河北省经济增长的影响因素分析

The Influence Factors Analysis of Hebei Province Economic Growth

利用1978-2012年的统计数据,以新增长理论为基础,构建河北省经济增长的影响因素模型。首先利用Johansen协整检验考察各影响因素与河北省经济增长之间的长期均衡关系,得出各影响因素对河北省经济增长均有正向推动作用,其中人力资本投入的弹性最大,其次是国内资本投入、劳动力投入,而外商直接投资的弹性最小。然后通过建立状态空间模型来考察各因素的弹性系数在1978-2012年间的动态变化,结果表明国内资本投入与人力资本投入弹性比较稳定,劳动力投入与外商直接投资的弹性相对波动较大。

Based on the statistics of 1978 to 2012 and the new theories of economic grow th ,this paper builds the Model of Influencing Factors of Hebei Province Economy Growth .The Johansen-Juselius test resulted in the conclusion that all factors are all effective in activating Hebei Province development and found that the human resources investment is the most flexible factor ,then the domestic capital input , labor input and the foreign direct investment has the minimum elasticity .The State Space Model ,which is used to analyze the dynamic change of elastic coefficient of each factor ,show s that the domestic cap-ital investment and the human resource capital input elasticity is relatively stable ,but the labor input and foreign direct investment elasticity are relatively serious .