新经济地理、比较优势与中国制造业空间格局演变——基于空间面板数据模型的分析

New Economic Geography,Comparative Advantage and Spatial Restructuring of Chinese Manufacturing Industries ——Analysis Based on Spatial Panel Model

本文分析了近期中国制造业空间格局的变化特征,并通过建立空间面板模型剖析了内在的影响因素。研究发现,近年来我国由东部向中西部的制造业空间扩散逐渐明显,涉及劳动力密集型产业以及部分资本密集型与技术密集型产业。要素成本变化并不是驱动产业扩散的明显原因,集聚外部性的变化才是原因所在。引起多数产业空间扩散的主要原因是同行业企业的激烈竞争,而且拥挤效应在劳动力密集型产业中的体现更为明显。本文结果再次说明比较优势与新经济地理学的空间尺度适应性,一国之内产业空间格局变化的主要原因并不在于地区间比较优势的变化,而是集聚外部性的作用。

This paper analyzes the changing spatial pattern of manufacturing industries in China, furthermore, explore the determinate factors through spatial panel model. We found the spatial pattern has changed significantly. It is featured by more and more obvious trend of industries in East China spread to Middle and West China, which include labor intensive industries and some of capital and tech intensive ones. According to our study, it is not the changing cost of production factors but agglomeration externalities that drives industry dispersion. Specifically, competition of firms in same sector is the main reason cause spatial spread. Compared to technology intensive industries or capital intensive industries, more significant congestion happens in labor intensive industries. The results of our study demonstrate the spatial scape of comparative advantage and new economic geography. Evolving internal geography of industries in a country is not determined by changing comparative advantage among regions but the effect of varying agglomeration externalities.