中美在西太平洋的军事竞争与战略平衡

Sino-U.S.Military Competition and Strategic Balance in the Western Pacific Ocean

近年来,中国军事现代化加速发展,反强敌干预的力量建设尤其引人瞩目。与此同时,美国对中国的担心和疑虑也与日俱增,积极谋划针对中国的军事战略。目前,双方战略博弈的焦点依然集中在台海、东海及南海等中国近海海域,着力点是台湾问题与涉华海洋争端。未来随着中关力量差距的进一步缩小,双方战略竞争的范围将可能扩大至整个亚太地区。中美间的战略平衡正在发生改变,双方的军事战略也越来越针锋相对。考虑到地缘、技术和军事体系等因素,中美极有可能在10-20年后形成如下态势:美国不得不接受中国在近海海洋空间的战略优势,中国也无法动摇美国在第一岛链以外广大海域的军事霸权。双方沿第一岛链附近海域形成的战略平衡就将长期得到维系。

In recent years,China's military modernization has been accelerating,especially the construction of anti-intervention forces.Meanwhile,the United States' worries and concerns over China are growing,and they are actively planning for new military strategy to deal with China.Currently,the game is still focusing on China's coastal waters in the Taiwan Strait,the East China Sea,and South China Sea,etc.,and the core issues are the Taiwan question and maritime disputes involving China.With the strength gap between the two sides narrowing,Sino-US contest will probably expand to the entire Asia-Pacific region.The strategic balance between China and the U.S.is changing,as both sides are increasingly taking tit for tat military strategy.However,no matter how much effort both parties will make,a strategic situation between China and the U.S.will be formed in the coming 10-20 years in the following ways:the United States has to accept China's strategic advantage in China's coastal waters,and no matter to what extent China' rising will be,China could not shake the U.S.military hegemony of vast waters beyond the first island chain.Unless fundamental changes occur in the geopolitical situation and military technology or no major mistakes are made in the two military systems,the formed strategic balance along the waters near the first island chain will be maintained.