干旱条件下城市水资源应急调配模型

An Emergency Water Resource Deployment Model of City under Drought Condition

近年来，我国南方季节性干旱频发，给社会经济造成严重影响．以南昌市为例，构建了基于城市供水水源管理与行政分区的二层大系统分解协调应急调配模型．分别以2010年、2020年、2030年为水平年，在不同干旱条件下（枯水频率分别为75％，95％，99％）进行水资源供需分析计算．结果表明，该市南昌县与进贤县7—9月最易发生干旱缺水；不同干旱条件下，全市缺水率将达23．70％～45．85％；如采用水资源统一调配和协调供水方案，则可使全市缺水率下降到0．00％～41．63％．基于水资源统一管理理念及实际情况，限制性协调供水方案可用来降低缺水率，减轻干旱带来的损失，论证了所提模型方法的有效性．

In recent years, droughts occur frequently in southern China, which has a significant impact on the social economy. Taking Nanchang City for example, the paper models the emergency water resource deployment with the theory of ＂ decompose-coordination＂ of two-layer large-scale systems, in which the partition is based on the management of source of water supply and administrative division ; with the established model, the analysis and calculation on the water balance in 3 target years, being 2010, 2020, 2030, in different drought conditions, being P =75% , P =95% , P =99% , is presented. The results show that water shortage is more likely to occur in Nanchang County and Jinxian County in July, August, and September, under drought condition. Under various drought condition, the water deficient ratio（WRD） will be 23.70%-45.85% under isolated supply situation, while the WRD will reduce to 0.00% 41.63% under coordinated deployment schemes. Based on the concept of united water resources management and the practical situa-tion, coordinated deployment schemes with restricting terms are suggested to reduce the WRD and alleviate the damage of Nanchang un-der drought condition. Also, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the model.