吉林市土地利用结构变化研究

Study on the Changes of Land use Structure in Jilin City

基于马尔可夫模型预测的方法,本文从土地利用数量变化、土地利用结构变化等角度,分析了1996-2010年间吉林市土地利用结构变化的动态特征.研究结果:应用马尔可夫预测模型的方法进行实证分析,预测了吉林地区土地需求量.通过研究,找出了吉林市土地利用结构中存在的问题,为该市土地利用的可持续发展,提出合理化建议,为国土资源管理部门提高土地利用及管理水平提供可靠的科学依据.

Through the study of the quantity structure of land use in Jilin city, the land structure in the urban area of Jilin city is mainly to the cultivated land and woodland, reflects Jilin city counties and urban land structure type to agricultural land. In this paper, based on the method of Markov model, from the quantity change of land use, land use structure change point of view, analysis of the dynamic characteristics of structural change of land use in Jilin between 1996 and 2010. Results： the application of Markov prediction model is proposed, the empirical analysis, forecasting land demand quantity in Jilin area. Through the research, find out the problems existing in the structure of land use in Jilin city, for the sustainable development of the city land utilization, put forward some reasonable sug- gestions, provides the reliable scientific basis for land use and management of land and resources management de- partments region.