政府债务、经济增长与非线性效应

Public Debt,Economic Growth and Nonlinear Effects

本文基于61个国家1980-2009年的面板数据,采用系统GMM方法对政府债务与经济增长之间的非线性关系进行了实证检验,较好地克服了变量内生性问题。研究表明,政府债务与经济增长之间存在着非线性(倒U型)关系,这种关系普遍存在于发达国家和发展中国家;证明了债务阈值的存在性,且两组国家中政府债务阈值的大小存在差异。但是,政府债务阈值并不具有唯一性和确定性,它随利率、通货膨胀、经常账户和金融发展的变化而显示出动态性特征,且上述变量对两组国家的影响存在显著的区别。

This paper explores the nonlinear relationship between government debt and economic growth. The analysis based on panel data from 61 countries on 1980 -2009. The System GMM was used in the study to deal with the reverse causality and endogeneity. Research shows there exist nonlinear （an inverted U-shaped pattern） relationship between government debt and economic growth, this relationship exists in both developed and developing countries; proved the existence of the debt threshold, and the difference of two groups of countries in government debt threshold value. However, government debt threshold does not have uniqueness and determinacy, which changes with the interest rate, inflation, the current account and financial development; and thus, it shows the dynamic characteristic, and these variable effects on the two groups of countries have significant difference.