财政政策DSGE模型中国化构建及其应用

Fiscal Policy of Chinese Construction for DSGE Model and its Application

事前模拟经济对财政政策变化的反应是检验政策效果的重要手段。本文通过对国外经典模型的改进,并引入系统财政规则,构建更符合中国现实的财政政策DSGE模型。在有效税率估算校准与参数贝叶斯估计的基础上,给出了政策模拟检验应用示例。研究结果显示,税率冲击效应模拟是税制改革实验的有效方法,资本税率可作为经济结构调整的政策工具,当前增加政府支出对经济增长的拉动作用较弱。

Simulation of the economic response to changes in fiscal policy in advance is an important technique to examine the effects of fiscal policy. This paper improved foreign classic model, introduced the system fiscal rules and built fiscal policy DSGE models. Basing on the effective tax rate estimation and parameters bayesian estimation, it gave the example of simulation and test for fiscal policy, which found the conclusions that simulation the shocks of tax rate was the effect way of the tax reform, capital tax rate was an effect tool of economic structure adjustment, while increasing the government expenditures was weak for driving economics grow. It could also provide reference for DSGE model research in China.