虚拟经济波动影响实体经济周期的研究进展与展望

The Progress and Prospect of the Studies on the Impacts of Fictitious Business Fluctuations on Real Business Cycle

本文梳理了近年来有关虚拟经济波动对实体经济周期影响的理论文献发现:现代经济周期理论的历史演变过程揭示了时下主流的新凯恩斯主义研究方法的逻辑基础;学术界对虚拟经济波动之于实体经济周期的作用的认识经历了从"放大器"到"波动源泉"的深化过程,虚拟经济本身的周期性波动外溢使得对其对实体经济周期的影响更加复杂;通过构造预警指数能够就虚拟经济对实体经济可能的冲击效应做出预判;基于对虚拟经济认识的加深,各国政府的宏观调控政策发生了显著的变化。据此我们认为,在新凯恩斯动态一般均衡框架下,从虚拟经济周期的角度系统研究两者的影响关系是未来这一领域的重要方向。

The paper reviews the recent literatures on the impacts of fictitious business fluctuations on real business cycle. We find that the historic evolution process of modern theories on business cycle discloses the logics foundation of the popular New-Keynesian research method. Understanding the roles of fictitious business fluctuations in real business cycle in academia has experienced the deep process from 'amplifier'to 'the source of fluctuation'. Spillover of the cyclical fluctuation of fictitious business to real business sectors makes it even complicated. Constructing early warning index system can be helpful to anticipate the impacts of fictitious business shocks on real business sectors. Based on deep understanding of fictitious business,macroeconomic control policies of governments have been changed significantly. We believe that under the NewKeynesian's dynamic general equilibrium framework,research on the effects of fictitious and real economy on each other from the perspective of fictitious business cycle is an important direction in this area.