订单农业合同履约率影响因子的Logistic实证研究--基于陕西381个订单农户的样本

Logistic Empirical Research on the Factors that Affect the Performance Rate of Order Agriculture Contract——Based on the Sample of 381 Order Farmers in Shaanxi

订单农业是我国现代农业发展中一种有效的农业生产组织方式,订单合同能否成功履约则影响着订单农业能否顺利发展。本文基于陕西381个订单农户的样本,采用Logistic模型对影响订单合同履约率的因素进行了统计描述和实证分析。结果表明:订单农户受教育程度、是否获得补贴、是否需要借款与其履约行为明显相关;订单企业与农户签订的订单合同是否规定收购标准及订单企业农产品的收购价格与订单履约呈显著的正相关性;订单农户的贷款需求是否得到满足与农户履约行为呈显著相关性。本文建议从培育订单主体、规范合同文本、创新金融产品等方面入手,提高订单合同的履约率。

Order agriculture is a kind of effective agricultural production organization form in Chinese modern agricultural development. Whether order contract can be performed successfully or not will affect whether order agriculture can be developed smoothly or not. This paper adopts Logistic model and conducts statistical description and empirical analysis on the factors that affect the performance rate of order contract based on the sample of 381 order farmers in Shaanxi. The results show that the educational attainment of order farmers,whether they can get subsidy or not and whether they need to borrow money or not have an obvious correlation with their performance behaviors. Whether the order contract signed between order agriculture and farmers stipulates purchase standards and the purchase prices for the agricultural produces of order enterprises or not has an obvious positive correlation with order performance. Whether the loan demand of order farmers is satisfied or not has an obvious correlation with the performance behaviors of farmers. This paper suggests that we start from breeding order subjects,standardizing and innovating financial products and raise the performance rate of order contract.