电力占终端能源消费比重分析预测方法及应用

Analysis &Forecasting Method and Application of Electric Energy Proportion in Final Energy Consumption

电力占终端能源消费比重是衡量某一国家或地区电气化程度的一个重要指标,分析预测该项指标可为能源消费利用的可持续健康发展提供决策参考。提出了电能占终端能源消费比重计算方法的修正意见,完善了该指标的计算方法,同时提出了其发展趋势预测方法,并应用到安徽省电力在终端能源消费中的计算及预测中。应用结果显示:该分析预测方法可有效分析区域电气化水平,明确能源消费结构及效率改善的方向。

Electric energy proportion in final energy consumption is a significant index of the electrification de- gree for certain country or area, and the index forecast could provide decision reference for Sustainable devel opment of energy consumption and utilization. Amendments for the calculation method of the index, and the forecasting method of the index are proposed in the paper. The calculation and forecasting methods of the elec- tric index are applicatied in Anhui province of China. The application results indicate the proposed analysis and forecast methods could effectively analyse the electrification level of certain country or region.