近期国际油气投资环境形势分析

Recent investment environment for international oil and gas companies

近期,美国全球战略收缩导致的"领导真空"不仅加剧了世界各地区的政治波动,而且使各国对其倡导的经济模式产生了质疑,致使保护主义思潮又起,各国政府更倾向于"带门禁的全球化",进而影响了国际投资与贸易。与此同时,人口迅速增加的发展中国家和以中国为代表的新兴力量对世界格局产生越来越重要的影响,人口增长引发的资源环境压力成为社会动荡的主要因素,而积极参与国际事务的中国在这种历史大变革中不可避免地会引发一些改变和冲突。努力迈向"世界水平"的中国石油企业需要通过加强形势研判来适应世界甚至领先世界,并与之相适应地进行整体投资调整和全球生产调配,以实现国际化发展战略。

Recently a so-called 'leadership vacuum' has resulted from U.S. rebalancing of its foreign policy. This has resulted in intensified political volatility around the world, and has prompted anew questions over the success of the economic development model which the U.S. has advocated. Protectionist sentiments are reemerging and many governments are beginning to prefer socalled 'gated globalization' which can greatly influence international investment and trade. Meanwhile, both developing countries with rapid population growth as well as emerging markets like China's are beginning to exert far more influence on world markets. Resource and environmental pressures triggered by population growth have become the primary factor in social unrest. China, as it eagerly participates in global affairs, is inevitably undergoing changes and becoming involved in some conflicts. Chinese oil majors, while actively trying to become 'world-class,' should engage in more strategic analysis and decision making. At the same time, they must adjust their overall investment and global resource deployment in keeping with their international development strategy.