加拿大油砂产业发展趋势以及中加油砂项目合作面临的挑战

Trends in Canada's oil sands industry and challenges in Sino-Canadian cooperation there

在加拿大开展油砂项目合作面临空前的发展机遇,也有一些不确定性因素,除易受政治、经济、自然与社会因素变化等外部环境影响外,风险和挑战也来自产业链自身:原油运输为主的基础设施严重不足;市场空间面临常规原油和其他非常规油品的竞争;配套炼厂加工能力建设尚需时日;国际油价和生产要素价格变化直接影响上游收益。我国石油企业参与加拿大油砂项目应兼顾上中下游整条产业链,合理制定发展策略,找准市场定位;以经济效益为中心,不要盲目追求规模,要以技术提升核心竞争力;稳步拓展国际能源合作,继续推进在加非常规原油供应战略接替区建设;在合理定价的基础上,通过引进加拿大油砂资源进一步完善我国多元进口渠道,增强进口原油价格谈判的主动性。

Rapid development of Canada's oil sands industry presents both opportunities and uncertainties to SinoCanadian cooperation there. In addition to external factors(i.e., political, economic, and social, as well as Act-of-God uncertainties), challenges may come from the oil sands industry itself, such as: lack of crude oil transportation infrastructure, competition among refiners for conventional and unconventional crude oil, inadequate refining capacity, and mismatch between volatility in input costs and change in international oil prices. So, in order to successfully operate oil sands projects in Canada, Chinese oil companies should:(1) primarily focus on upstream activities, while not losing sight of midstream and downstream, all the while finetuning a suitable development strategy with appropriate marketing targets;(2) emphasize efficiency over size, and enhance core competitiveness through the development and use of technology;(3) seek out expanded cooperation opportunities with international oil companies, and be constantly developing additional strategic areas for replacing unconventional crude oil resources;(4) import Canadian oil sands resources at a reasonable price to diversify China's sourcing of oil imports; and(5) improve negotiation procedures and outcomes for crude oil imports.