2013年国内成品油市场分析及2014年供需预测

China's 2013 oil product market and 2014 supply/demand outlook

2013年国内成品油(汽煤柴)表观消费量达到2.64亿吨,增长5%,消费柴汽比降至1.76。其中,汽油消费8735万吨,增长12%;柴油消费1.54亿吨,与上年基本持平;煤油消费2248万吨,增长14%。国内成品油产量2.73亿吨,增长6%,增速连续第二年高于消费量。总体看,2013年成品油市场呈现如下特点:资源供需进一步宽松,柴汽比显著下降;汽油和煤油需求强劲,柴油需求停滞不前;替代燃料发展较快,多个品种稳步增长;地炼扩能速度放慢,装置结构优化加快;调和油、社会库存等隐性资源影响明显减弱。2014年,预计国内汽油需求将增长9%,煤油需求增长12%,柴油需求继续"0"增长;成品油表观消费量增长4%,达到2.74亿吨,消费柴汽比进一步降至1.61;新增炼油能力4000万吨/年,成品油产量将达到2.86亿吨,超出消费量1170万吨,市场供需较2013年更加宽松。

China's apparent consumption of oil products(incl. gasoline, kerosene and diesel) reached 264 million tons in 2013, representing an annual increase of 5%, with the ratio of diesel to gasoline at 1.76. In particular gasoline consumption was 87.35 million tons, up 12%; diesel 154 million tons, basically flat from 2012; kerosene 22.48 million tons, up 14%. Oil product output was 273 million tons, up 6%, which was above consumption growth for the second year in a row. The 2013 oil product market had the following five distinctions:(1) further easing of supply and demand growth;(2) strong demand for gasoline and kerosene, but sluggish demand for diesel, resulting in a big decline in the diesel/gasoline ratio;(3) rapid growth in alternative fuels and stable growth in types;(4) expansion slowdown and quicker rationalization in local refining capacity; and(5) diminished impact of hidden resources like oil blending and inventories. In 2014, demand is expected to grow by 9% for gasoline, 12% for kerosene and 0% for diesel. Apparent consumption of oil products will grow by 4% to 274 million tons, and the diesel/gasoline ratio will decline further to 1.61. Additional refining capacity will expand to 40 million tons/year. Oil product output will be 286 million tons, more than consumption which will be 11.7 million tons. Supply/ demand growth will further ease from 2013.