摘要
中国巨大的能源消费总量和以煤为主的能源消费结构给经济-能源-环境协调发展带来严重挑战。在一次能源需求总量仍将持续扩展的背景下,要破解经济发展中能源和生态环境约束,实现可持续发展,中国能源消费结构迫切需要调整。新能源和可再生能源难以独自撑起能源结构调整重任,油气成为发展的必然选择。当前中国国内石油产量进入平稳期,具备2.2亿吨/年长期稳产条件;天然气产量持续快速增长,2030年有望达到3600亿立方米/年;国外油气资源丰富,产量增量能够满足中国油气增量需求,同时国际环境和油气发展形势给中国利用海外油气资源创造了良好条件。预计2030年油气在中国一次能源消费总量中的比重能够升至40%。为保障利用国内外两种资源的可靠性,建议实施国内油气产量"倍增计划",发挥国内油气的基础保障作用;依托"战略通道"和"调配驿站",构建油气安全供应体系;培植大型能源集团,增强世界油气供应和掌控能力。
China's total energy consumption is huge and coal's domination of its energy consumption mix presents a serious challenge in coordinating economic, energy and environmental policies and priorities. Continued growth in primary energy demand is putting a strain on energy and environmental constraints, and putting China's energy consumption mix in urgent need of adjustment. It is hard for new energy and renewable energy alone to shoulder responsibility for adjusting China's energy consumption mix; so, oil and gas becomes an inevitable development alternative. China's current oil output has entered a steady phase, with a steady long-term annual production capability of 220 million tons, while its annual natural gas output continues to grow rapidly, expected to reach 360 billion cubic meters in 2030. There are abundant oil and gas resources abroad and estimated incremental output from them can satisfy China's incremental energy demand. Meanwhile international environmental and energy development circumstances are opportune for China to tap foreign energy resources. The proportion of oil and gas in China's total primary energy consumption is predicted to rise to 40% in 2030. To ensure the security of oil and gas supply:(1) a domestic oil and gas output 'doubling plan' should be implemented to play a fundamental role in domestic supply security;(2) there should be an oil and gas supply security system with a 'strategic channels' and 'deployment relays' structure; and(3) large energy groups should be cultivated to enhance world oil and gas supply and control capability.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2014年第4期9-16,108,共8页
International Petroleum Economics
