2000年以来我国长江中游区域暴雨研究进展

Review of the Study on Heavy Rain in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Since 2000

长江中游地区是暴雨多发区和重灾区,深入认识该区域暴雨形成的中、小尺度天气系统、分析暴雨发生机理与发展暴雨、洪水预报技术,对于我国防洪减灾具有重要意义。针对长江中游区域暴雨从观测到资料分析、机理研究,再到数值预报与水文应用研究,重点从暴雨外场观测试验及资料反演和中尺度资料融合技术、长江中游暴雨MCS(中尺度对流系统)观测分析和理论研究、中尺度暴雨数值模式研究和长江中游水文气象耦合的暴雨洪水预报系统四个方面介绍了2000年以来我国科研业务单位的主要研究进展,并对制约长江中游区域暴雨研究深入与预报水平提高的主要问题进行了简要讨论,对未来的研究趋势进行了展望。

The middle reaches of the Yangtze River are frequently-occurring heavy rain areas. It is important to have the knowledge of heavy rain mesoscale and small-scale weather systems in these areas, their mechanism, and develop the heavy rain and lfood forecasting technology for the lfood control and hazard mitigation. From the heavy rain ifeld observation experiment, data inversion and fusion technology, observation analysis and theoretical research on heavy rain mesoscale convective systems, the mesoscale numerical model, and the hydrometeorological coupling rainstorm and lfood forecasting system which are the most crucial aspects of observation data analysis, mechanism, numerical prediction, and hydrological application of the study on heavy rain in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the main research progress has been brielfy reviewed in China since 2000. The problems which obstruct the research depth and forecast quality were also discussed. Finally, the research development tendency was prospected.