流域水文气象耦合的洪水预报研究及应用进展

Research and Application Progress on Basin HydroMeteorology Coupling Flood Forecasting

洪水预报在防洪减灾中具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。论文从流域暴雨的定量降水估算与预报、流域洪水预报水文模型、流域水文气象耦合、流域洪水实时预报系统研发及业务应用等方面回顾了国内外流域水文气象耦合的洪水预报研究与实践的进展,并从洪水预报与气象预报的集成耦合、有物理基础的分布式水文模拟、洪水风险灾害评价等展望了流域洪水灾害预报的一些关键技术和问题。

Flood forecasting has an important theoretical and practical significance in flood control and disaster mitigation. Research and application progress on Basin hydro-meteorology coupling lfood forecasting both at home and abroad is reviewed from the radar and numerical model of quantitative precipitation estimation and forecast technology, hydrological model for basin lfood forecasting, hydrology-meteorological coupling technology, and real-time lfood forecasting system. Finally, some key technologies and problems of lfood disaster prediction from the integration and coupling for lfood forecast and weather forecast, physically based distributed hydrological model and lfood disaster evaluation are proposed.