基于改进GM(1，1)模型的卫生总费用快速测算方法研究

Rapid Calculation Approach of Total Health Expenditure Based on Improving GM(1.1) Model

目的:使用改进的GM(1,1)(Grey Model,一阶灰色理论微分方程型模型)方法快速预测长短期中国卫生总费用,有效缩短预测时间,提高预测可靠性。方法:依据卫生总费用历史数据中年平均增长率的变化,选用GM(1,1)方法从长期趋势预测卫生总费用可能的突变年份及相应总费用值;采用线性回归模型以突变年份为临界点从短期趋势分段预测突变年份间的总费用值。结果:预测结果与年平均增长率、ARIMA模型、快速推算法等方法比较,精度高,更高效便捷。结论:基于改进的GM(1,1)模型的我国卫生总费用预测方法快速、有效、可行。

Objective： To propose the improved GM （1,1）（Grey Model, lst grey theoretical differential equation model） method to quickly predict long-short term total health expenditure（THE） in China, effectively shorten prediction time and improve the reliability of prediction. Methods： According to the changes of average underlying annual growth rate of historical THE, some aberrant points for years were calculated with GM （1,1） method. THE was predicted by linear regression model between two continuous aberrant years. Results： Compared with average annual growth rate, ARIMA model and quick calculation method, the result of prediction was more accurate and convenient. Conclusion： The prediction method for THE based on improved GM （1, 1 ） model is rapid, effective and feasible.