宿州电网电力负荷与气象条件关系研究及预测系统开发设计

On Relationship between Electricity grid system load and meteorological conditions in Suzhou and Forecasting System Design

利用宿州电网2008年8月～2010年9月逐日电力负荷和宿州逐日气象资料，系统分析电力负荷与气象条件的关系，分时段建立电力负荷预测模型，开发了宿州气象电力预测预警系统平台。该系统主要研究气象要素与电力负荷的关系，做出短期预测模型；结合WEB的CS和BS终端访问技术、数据挖掘技术、多因子变量回归技术和最优因子集组合技术，根据不同季节的特点，分5个时段对宿州电网负荷进行5d的中短期预测。系统在试运行期间表现稳定、易操作、短期负荷预测预警精度高，该系统增强了宿州电力供应安全的保障能力，推进部门相互间在信息、技术等方面的合作与共享，为宿州电网的规划和运行提供了科学依据，提升了科学经济运营水平。

By using electricity load and daily meteorological data in Suzhou during Aug. 2008 - Sep. 2010, the relationship was analyzed, the electricity load model was established, the early-warning system platform was developed. The research of this system, which mainly focuses on the relationship between meteorological elements and electrical load, is used to design a short-term prediction model, which combines the CS and BS terminal access technology of WEB, data mining technology, multi factor regression technology and the set of optimal factor combina- tion technology. Based on the characteristics of different seasons, we design short-term prediction of Suzhou electricity grid system load for 5 days by dividing a day into 5 periods. The system is stable and easy to operate during the test operation period, the short-term load early-warn- ing precise is high. The system strength the guaranteeing ability of electricity safety supply in Suzhou and promote cooperation and sharing in information and technique, which will provide scientific basis for planning of Suzhou electricity grid.