黑龙江省东部地区风能资源数值模拟误差分析

Analysis on Wind Energy Numerical Simulation Error in Eastern Region of Heilongjiang Province

利用MM5＋ CALMET模型对黑龙江省东部地区2009年6月～2010年5月进行风能资源数值模拟,并与3座测风塔实测风速进行误差对比分析.结果表明,在10 m处,各测风塔年平均风速模拟值小于实测值,10 m以上,年平均风速模拟值大于实测值;模拟风速频率在2 ～5 m/s小于实测风速频率,在6～ 10 m/s大于实测风速频率,＜10 m/s与实测风速频率基本相当;模型对风向的模拟效果不如对风速的模拟效果,虽然70 m高度模拟主导风向与实测风主导风向基本一致,但模拟值与实测值相差较大;模型对风能频率的模拟效果优于对风速频率与风向频率的模拟.

MM5/Calmet model system was used to simulate wind energy in eastern region of Heilongjiang Province during June 2009 to May 2010,and the simulated results were analyzed with the determination data from 3 anemometer towers.The results showed that：the simulated value of annual average wind speed was smaller than observed value on 10m,and was higher than observed value above 10m; the simulated frequencies of wind speed was lower than observed value between 2-5 m/s,and was higher than observed value between 6-10 m/s,and was as similar as observed value above 10m/s ; The performance of simulating wind direction frequency was not as better as those of simulating wind speed frequency,the model could simulate observed dominant wind direction although the simulated value was obviously smaller than observed value ; the simulation capacity on wind energy density was better than capacity on wind frequency.