楚雄市城市化水平与耕地面积变化关系研究

A Study on the Relationship between Urbanization and Area Change of Cultivated Land of Chuxiong Municipality

利用相关及回归分析对楚雄市1994年至2011年城市化水平与耕地面积变化之间的关系进行研究。结果表明,随着时间的推移,楚雄市城市化率呈稳步缓慢增长趋势;而耕地面积数量则表现为波动性的先减少后增加趋势,两者之间存在着显著的负相关关系。耕地面积的变化大致可以分为4个阶段:(1)1994—2000年,年末耕地面积逐年缓慢减少;(2)2001—2003年,快速下降;(3)2003—2008年,保持平稳状态;(4)2008年后呈缓慢增加并趋于稳定。楚雄市耕地面积整体走势表现为一个不规则的"U"型。总体而言,随着城市化的发展,耕地面积先下降后增加。最后,提出保护耕地资源的相关建议。

This paper, by employing the correlation analysis and regression analysis methods, presents a research into the relationship between the urbanization process and change of area of cultivated land be- tween 1994 and 2011, the result of which shows that while urbanization degree increases steadily the area of cultivated land decreased quickly first before beginning to increase slowly again. In other words, there is a marked negative correlation between them. Area of the cultivated land has undergone the following 4 sta- ges of change ： 1 } slow decrease between 1994 and 2000 ; 2 } sharp drop between 2001 and 2003 ; 3 f sta- bility between 2003 and 2008 ; and 4 } slow increase followed by stability after 2008. In short, this U - shaped change of area of cultivated land of Chuxiong is a result of the local urbanization process. At the end of the paper, the authors suggest some ways to protect the cultivated land.