基于趋势面法的采掘工作面瓦斯涌出量预测技术研究

Technology of Methane Gushing Amount Prediction for Mining and Driving Face Based on Trend Surface Method

矿井瓦斯涌出量是一个受多因素影响的参数,传统的预测方法无法反映各影响因素的动态变化趋势以及它们之间的联系。为此,提出了矿井瓦斯涌出预测的动态趋势预测法,利用该方法对屯兰煤矿采掘工作面瓦斯涌出量大小进行了预测,并利用涌出量实测值对预测结果进行了验证。结果表明:在一定埋深与产量(或进尺)范围内,采用实时动态趋势预测法能够较准确地预测采掘工作面瓦斯涌出量,可以在屯兰矿或其他矿井推广应用。

Methane gushing amount is influenced by muhi-factors. Traditional prediction method for methane gushing amount could not reflect dynamic variation of these factors and their relationship. Therefore, real-time dynamic prediction method of mine methane gush- ing amount was put forward. This method was applied in mining and driving face of Tunlan Colliery and prediction result was verified by observation data. Result showed that on the range of some depth and output （or footage）, this method could predict methane gushing a- mount of mining and driving face precisely and be used in other mines.