典型农业前瞻案例中情景分析法的应用分析

Investigation of Scenario Analysis in Typical Agricultural Foresight Cases

通过分析近年来重要国际机构开展的若干农业和粮食系统的前瞻工作,系统研究情景分析法的应用情况,包括情景研究类型、情景分析流程及情景构建技术,并总结情景分析法在典型农业前瞻实践中的特点。分析表明,典型农业前瞻的情景分析按不同角度分类有多种类型,其流程随定性或定量分析类别不同有一定差异,情景的构建和分析综合采取多种方法与技术,尤其与模型应用紧密联系。

Focusing on the method of nario analysis in several typical agricultural scenario foresigh analysis, this study gives a systematic analysis on the application of sce- t researches carried out by remarkable international institutions in recent years, with the emphasis on the elaboration of scenario typologies, scenario processing and approaches of scenario construc- tion. It shows that for the typical agricultural foresight cases, scenario types were multiple and scenario processing was dif- ferent between the quality scenario analysis and quantity scenario analysis. The scenario construction and development ap- plied multiple technologies, with the highlight of drivers analysis and employment of models.