区域经济增长与产业结构演化的耦合研究＊--以山东省为例

RESEARCH FOR THE COUPLING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE REGIONAL ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT AND THE EVOLUTION OF INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE---TAKING SHANDONG PROVINCE AS AN EXAMPLE

把握经济增长与产业结构的内在规律是制定合理经济发展政策的基础和依据．笔者以山东省为例，运用 ADF 检验、协整检验、Granger 因果关系检验等计量方法，借助 Eviews5．0软件，分析了山东省1978-2010年经济增长与产业结构间的耦合关系．研究发现：1）山东省经济增长与三次产业结构演化间存在长期的均衡关系；2）经济增长与三次产业结构演化间存在单向因果关系，即三次产业变动是经济增长的 Granger 原因．

To hold the inner law of economic increasing and industrial structure is the basis of setting up appropriate economic -developing policies.Using the calculation methods of ADF test,co -integration test, granger causality test,etc,with the assistant of the software Eviews5.0,the dynamic relationship between the economic increasing and industrial structure of Shandong Province during 1 978 -201 0 is analyzed.We have found that：1 ）To Shandong Province,there is a long -standing relationship between the economic increasing and three times of industrial structure evolution,but there is imbalance in the short term.2）There is one -way causal relationship existed between the economic increasing and three times of industrial structure evolution,thus the Granger cause of economic increasing is the three times of industrial evolution.