基于系统动力学的山东省土地资源人口承载力研究

STUDY ON LAND POPULATION CARRYING CAPACITY IN SHANDONG PROVINCE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS

以传统的反映人粮关系的食物型人口承载力及反映土地资源经济产出的货币型人口承载力来综合确定土地资源人口综合承载力,运用系统动力学模型的原理和方法模拟仿真山东省未来十几年不同情景下的土地资源人口承载力变化,建立了区域土地资源人口承载力模型,得出较优的发展方案.结果表明：到2020年,食物型-温饱型土地资源人口承载力为18 634.6万人,货币型-生存型土地资源人口承载力为21 596.4万人,综合享受型土地资源人口承载力为20 500.5万人.

By taking the territory of Shandong Province as the study area,and based on the principle and method of system dynamics,a model of regional population carrying capacity of land resources was developed.The results of the simulation show that the medium scheme is the optimal one.From the food-population carrying capacity,the result is low scheme ＞ mudiem scheme ＞ high scheme,from the currency population carrying capacity,the result is high scheme ＞ mudiem scheme ＞ low scheme,and from the population comprehensive carrying capacity,the result is high scheme ＞ mudiem scheme ＞ low scheme.The food-population carrying capacity,currency-population carrying capacity and population comprehensive carrying capacity will be 1.863 4× 108person,2.159 6 × 108person and 2.050 0 × 108 person respectively in 2020.