基于灰色系统的皖北地区耕地面积变化及影响因素分析

THE ANALYSIS ON DYNAMIC CHANGES OF CULTIVATED LAND AND INFLUENCING FACTORS BASED ON GRAY ANALYSIS IN THE NORTHERN ANHUI PROVINCE

利用皖北1991-2009年的耕地变化和社会经济统计资料,分析了近20年来该区耕地变化的情况,同时对影响耕地变化的11个因子进行了灰色关联分析,得出耕地变化的原因.结果表明：皖北地区研究期内耕地总体上不断减少.就耕地变化率,宿州市耕地变化速度最快,相对变化率淮南和宿州较全区快,淮北较全区慢.影响皖北耕地变化的因素可以概括为人口因素、农业科技进步、经济发展等方面,其中,农业产值占农林牧业比例是皖北耕地变化的首要因子;人口因素在关联度排序中占第2位,成为影响耕地变化的主要因素;农业科技因素在耕地变化中发挥着重要作用;经济发展因素虽然在关联度排序排名中较靠后,但在耕地变化中也占有重要位置.

According to statistical and survey data from 1991 to 2009 at provincial levels,trend of cultivated land change and its influencing forces in Northern Anhui Province during the last 20 years are discussed in this article.It was found that,since the 1991,the total area of cultivated land availability is reducing,rate of cultivated land in SuZhou City is fastest,and relative rate of Huainan and SuZhou City are the fast and Huaibei City is the slow.The 11 foctors affecting cultivated land changes are analyzed which could be classified into three types,population progress of science and technology in agriculture,and the development of economy.Among them,agricultural output value in the correlation degree of farming,forestry and animal husbandry proportion is the primary factor of cultivated land change.Population factors in the sorting of correlation degree of second place become the main factors of cultivated land change.Progress of science and technology in agriculture plays an important role and economic development also occupies an important position.