基于三维风险矩阵的旅游景区事故风险评估研究

Assessment research on tourism attractions accident risk based on three- dimensional risk matrix

随着我国旅游业的快速发展和旅游景区的大规模建设,旅游景区各类事故日渐频繁,其社会影响也逐渐成为关系到景区正常运转乃至生存与发展的重要问题。因此,需要在考虑社会影响的基础上对旅游景区事故风险进行全面评估。根据旅游景区事故风险发生的可能性、造成的物理损失和社会影响3个因素,构建旅游景区事故风险评估的三维风险矩阵;在对旅游景区事故风险进行分类的基础上,以某山岳型景区为例,采用三维风险矩阵对该景区事故风险进行风险评估。根据该景区12类事故风险的Borda序值,得到12类事故的风险排序,从而确定出同一风险等级内各个风险的先后次序。

With the rapid development of Chinas tourism industry and the largescale construction of tourist attractions,the accidents rate of tourist attractions is higher and higher.The social impact of accidents has become an important issue concerned thenormal operating and the development of tourist attractions.Therefore,considering the social impact of the accidents risk,the assessment of the accidents risk is needed.Based on the accident rate,loss （casualties,property damage）and the social impact ofaccidents,threedimensional risk matrix for risk assessment of tourist attractions is structured.Based on the classification of the accidents of tourist attractions,and take a certain tourist attraction as an example,the risk assessment of the tourist attraction accidents is conducted,and the order of the accidents risk is determined by Borda count method.Based on the Borda counts of 12 accident risks in the tourist attractions,the order of 12 accident risks is ascertained,and the precedence order of the accident risks inthe same risk level is defined.