农业领域应对气候变化的适应措施与对策

Research of Adaptive Countermeasures of Addressing Climate Change in Agriculture Field

农业是对气候变化反应最为敏感和脆弱的领域之一,任何程度的气候变化都会给农业生产及其相关过程带来潜在的或显著的影响,而提高适应能力是农业领域应对气候变化的主要对策。气候变化对农业领域的主要影响包括:气候变暖使我国年平均气温上升,农业生产所需的热量资源都有不同程度的增加,延长了气候生长季,气候变化对农业气候资源产生影响;气候变化使我国的种植制度和农业布局发生改变,导致种植区和种植制度分界线北移;气候变化对农作物产量和品质产生影响;气候变化还对农业旱涝及病虫害等气候灾害及粮食安全和农产品贸易产生影响。中国幅员辽阔,受气候变化影响的农业领域区域差异特征显著,开展适应措施与对策研究已成为农业领域科学应对气候变化的重要内容。当前主要适应技术措施包括:调整农业种植制度和布局;选育优良农作物品种;加强农业气候灾害防控;加强农业基础设施建设等。在此基础上,本文分析了农业领域在适应气候变化中存在适应技术薄弱分散,尚未建立完善的适应技术清单;评估方法中缺少对适应技术的成本效益分析以及资金和政策障碍等问题。提出将来应对气候变化中农业领域适应技术措施的发展趋势和方向,主要包括通过对气候变化影响的科学系统研究,减少不确定性,提升农业在全球气候谈判中地位;建立适应技术清单和技术集成体系以及建立科学选择和评估适应技术的方法步骤,在一定程度上通过增强适应能力来减轻气候变化的不利影响,以促进我国农业的可持续发展。

Agriculture is one of the most sensitive and fragile field to climate change, and any degree of climate change would have potential and significant effect on agricultural production and its related process. Improving agricultural adaptability to climate change is one of the main countermeasures. The effects of climate change on the agricultural fields include ： the climate warming make mean annual temperature increase, heat resources required by agriculture increase and the climate growing season prolonges, and climate change has impacts on agricultural climate resource;climate change changes planting system and agriculture distribution and the dividing line and system of planting area move to north ; climate change exerts effects on agricultural production and quality ; climate change exerts effects on agricultural drought and flood disasters, agricultural insects, food security and agricultural products trade. The effect of climate change on Chinese agriculture has outstanding regional differences in China due to a vast territory. Therefore, developing the research of adaptive measures and countermeasures is an important content for agriculture coping with climate change. At present, the main adaptive technology and measures include： adjusting planting system and distribution, selecting good crop variety, strengthening agricultural climate disaster control and enhancing agricultural infrastructure construction. On this basis, it analyzes the main effects on agriculture of climate change and the main adaptive technical measures at present; it also explores the main problems adaptive to climate change for agriculture, such as weakness and dispersion of adaptive technology, having not established adaptive technology list, lack of cost effectiveness analysis method for adaptive technology and capital and policy obstacles, etc. It puts forward the developing trend and direction of adaptive technology for agriculture coping with climate change, which include decreasing uncertainty of agriculture by system study of climate change effects, raising its position in global climate negotiation, establishing adaptive technology list and technology integration system, and establishing methods and steps of scientifically selecting and evaluating adaptive technology. Through measures above, the negative effects of climate change on agriculture would be reduced by improving agricultural adaptability and Chinese agriculture will develop sustainably.