可持续生计框架下农户气候变化适应能力研究

Farmers' Adaptation to Climate Change within the Sustainable Livelihood Framework

基于可持续生计框架,利用江苏,山东,四川,福建,江西5省754个样本的实际调查数据,采用多元的probit回归模型和养殖利润方程,从农户方面分析了当期的养殖利润,生计资本和生计策略的相互影响关系。分析结果表明,当期的养殖利润对生计策略没有显著影响,这说明养殖户采取应对策略具有滞后性;物质资本中的通用型资产,金融资本中的消费类资产对生计策略的影响为负,通用型资本的增加意味着养殖户的转移成本较小;消费类资产越多,农户可用于应对的风险的资金越少,因此这两者都会减少养殖户对生计策略的选择。而物质资本中与气象风险相关的专用型资本、金融资本中的储蓄类资产、人力资本和社会资本对生计策略的影响为正;专用型资本越多,农户的沉淀成本越多;而储蓄类资产、人力资本和社会资本的增加,农户应对风险的资源增加,故上述生计资本的增多会使得农户的适应性能力增强。而生计策略对当期养殖利润的影响受养殖规模的影响。因此要想提高农户在气候变化下的适应能力,政府就必须加强对其专用型资本,金融资本和社会资本的补贴,提高农户的受教育水平以及对规模化的养殖场进行政策补贴,税收减免等政策支持。

Climate change has caused more and more serious effects on agriculture and breeding. Especially for farmers in developing countries, climate change will produce series effects on land, pests and water. Farmers rely on state subsidies can only significantly improve their livelihood development in the short tenn. It relies heavily on the completion of the farmers＇ livelihood capital and the improvement of the framers＇ overall quality and skill level to achieve the continuous increase of farmers＇ income, farmers＇ livelihoods sustainable development under the background of climate change. Based on the sustainable livelihoods framework, we obtain the 754 samples from Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, Fujian and Jiangxi provinces, using multivariate regression model and breeding profits probit equation. We analyze the mutual influence relationships with current probits, livelihood capital and livelihoods strategies from the perspective of farmers. The results show that farmers＇ current profits do not have significant impacts on the livelihood strategies. It suggests that farmers＇ adoptive coping strategies have a lag effect. General-purpose assets of physical capital, consumer assets of financial capital have a negative effect on livelihood strategy. The increase of general-purpose assets means the decrese of transfer cost ; more consumer assets, fewer funds available for farmers to deal with the risk, therefore both of which can reduce the willing for farmers to take livelihood strategies. The exclusive assets related to weather risk of physical capital, the savings assets of financial capital, human capital and social capital have a positive effect on livelihood strategies; the more exclusive assets, the more sunk cost farmers undertake; with the increase of saving assets, human capital and social capital, the resources to deal with the risks increase, so the ability of farmers to adapt to the climate change strengthens. The direction of livelihood strategies has on current profit depending on the breeding scale. Therefore, in order to improve the ability of farmers to adapt to climate change, the government must strengthen its exclusive type of subsidy capital, financial capital and social capital, improve education level of farmers and take policy subsidies, tax relief and take other policices to support large-scale farms.