行业特征对低碳约束下工业绿色TFP增长的影响

Impact of Industrial Features on Green TFP Growth Under the Low-carbon Constraint

工业是中国实体经济增长的主要来源,也是能源消耗与碳排放的主体。在应对全球气候变化及发展低碳经济的背景下,中国工业发展将面临越来越强的能源与碳排放约束,工业增长必须由要素驱动的投入导向型转向创新驱动的效率导向型,提高低碳约束下的绿色TFP对工业增长的贡献,推动以绿色TFP增长为核心的工业低碳转型。该文基于非参数生产前沿分析方法,在考虑能源投入与碳排放这一非期望产出的全要素分析框架下,利用全局DEA方法及Malmquist-Luenberger指数,测度了1998-2010年中国工业36个细分行业绿色TFP的动态变化。考虑到中国工业内部不同行业在要素投入结构、所有制结构、企业规模、能源消费结构及行业开放度等方面存在较大的差异,文章分别利用条件均值回归和条件分位数回归,就上述行业特征因素对工业绿色TFP增长的影响效应进行了计量检验。实证分析结果表明:行业平均企业规模和行业企业集中度对行业绿色TFP增长均有显著促进作用,行业资本深化则抑制了行业绿色TFP增长,行业私营企业比重的提高并没有促进行业绿色TFP增长,FDI和煤炭消费比重均对行业绿色TFP增长有显著的负面影响。变参数估计结果表明,对处于高分位和低分位绿色TFP指数的行业来说,行业特征因素对行业绿色TFP增长的边际效应较弱,行业特征因素对处于中间分位的行业绿色TFP指数的边际效应最强。在此基础上,进一步指出上述结论对我国工业行业低碳转型发展的政策启示。

Industrial sectors occupy an important position in China＇ s economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions. In response to global climate change and the development of low-carbon economy, China＇ s industrial growth must steer from input-driven mode to innovation-driven and efficiency-oriented mode, and enhance the contribution of green TFP to industrial growth, in order to make green TFP growth play a central role in the low-carbon industrial transition. Under the non-parametric frontier analysis framework accounting for energy consumption and carbon emissions, this paper employs global DEA approach and Malmquist-Luenberger index to measure sub-industrial green TFP growth in China from 1998 to 2010. Taking into account the industrial differences in the terms of factor input structure, ownership structure, average size of enterprises, energy consumption structure and industrial openness, the conditional mean regression and quantile regression approach are applied respectively to test the impact of sub-industrial characteristics on industrial green TFP growth. Average size of enterprises and industrial concentration degree have a significantly positive effect on industrial green TFP growth, but capital deepening has inhibited industrial green TFP growth. The increasing proportion of private enterprises does not promote industrial green TFP growth. FDI and coal consumption play a significantly negative role in sub-industrial green TFP growth. Variable parameter estimation results indicate that the marginal effect of industrial features is comparatively weak on industrial green TFP growth for sub-industries of both high and low quantile green TFP. For sub-industries of middle quintile green TFP, industrial features play strongest marginal effect on industrial green TFP growth. Finally, some policy implications are pointed out about low-carbon industrial transition.