居民畜产品消费增长对农业用水量的影响

Impact of Livestock Consumption Growth on Regional Water Consumption

随着国民经济增长和人们收入水平提高,居民食品消费中畜产品所占的比重和绝对量均呈现不断增长的态势,由于畜产品生产需以谷物为饲料,我国畜产品产量增长将诱发谷物产量的大幅增加,而谷物是传统水资源密集型产业,虚拟水含量较高,谷物产量增长势必引发区域用水量的增加。论文从畜产品全生产链角度,基于虚拟水理论分析畜产品产量增长对区域用水量的影响。选用我国2002-2010年间省际面板数据设定面板协整模型,分析我国畜产品产量、谷物产量与区域用水量增长的长期关系。模型结果显示,我国各省(市)畜产品产量、谷物产量与区域用水量之间存在着长期稳定的面板协整关系,畜产品产量提高对区域用水量增长具有较强的长期正向相关关系。研究得出,畜产品消费增长诱发畜产品产量增加,带动作为上游产品的谷物产量上升,进而引发区域用水量增长,这是居民畜产品消费增长对区域用水量影响的基本路径。因此,为实现在不加剧缺水地区水资源压力的前提下满足居民日益增长的畜产品需求,要求提高畜产品的水资源生产力,从畜产品全生产链的角度,通过节水技术和有效的水资源管理政策降低饲料生产环节的虚拟水含量,这对于畜牧产品整条生产链的节水作用将十分显著。本研究提出利用虚拟水贸易的方式,借助畜产品及其饲料产品的国际或区际进口,以降低畜产品消费增长对缺水地区用水量的影响,并提倡引导建立可持续的食品消费模式和结构,以实现区域水资源禀赋与食品消费模式的协调发展。

With the national economic growth and development of people＇ s income level, the proportion and absolute amount of livestock products in household food consumption both show growing trend, which induces the improvement of livestock production. Because livestock production needs grain to feed, livestock production growth in China induces a significant increase in cereal production. As the grain is the traditional water-intensive industry with high virtual water content, the cereal production growth will inevitably lead to regional water consumption increase. From the perspective of the whole production chain of livestock, we analyze the influence of regional water consumption by the livestock production growth based on theoretical analysis of virtual water. We choose the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2010 of China in order to set up panel cointegration model and analyze the long-term relationship among China＇ s livestock production and cereal production and growth in regional water consumption. Studies have shown that ： Among the livestock production, grain production and the regional water of China＇ s provinces （ or municipalities） exists the long-term stable panel cointegration; there is a strong long-term positive correlation of regional water consumption growth by improvement of livestock production based on the thinking and view of the virtual water theory. Cointegration equation results show that the growth of livestock production is induced by the increasing in consumption of animal products, driving an increase in cereal production of upstream products, triggering a regional water consumption growth, which is the basic path of residents and livestock consumption growth impact on the regional water consumption. So, under the premise of no exacerbating water pressure on water deficient areas, we should improve the water productivity of livestock products to meet residents＇ growing demand for livestock products. Water saving technologies and effective water resource management policies should be used to reduce the virtual water content of the feed production chain from the perspective of the whole production chain of the livestock products, and they will be very significant to water-saving effect of the entire production chain for livestock products. Above all, this study proposes using the virtual water trade to reduce influence of water consumption by the livestock consumption growth in water deficient areas by international or regional imports of livestock products and feed products, and advocates to guide the establishment of sustainable food consumption pattern and structure in order to achieve the coordinated development of regional water resource endowment and food consumption.