世界棉花生产、进出口和消费对中国棉花生产的实证分析

Analysis of world cotton production,import and export,and cotton consumption in China

随着世界贸易自由化发展,中国棉花生产不仅受到国内因素影响,更是受到国际棉花市场因素的影响。本文通过建立双对数回归模型,研究得出:世界棉花生产、消费均对国内棉花生产产生显著的正向影响,世界棉花进出口对国内棉花生产具有显著的负向影响。并据此提出促进中国棉花生产能力提高、协调国内棉花生产同外部环境关系的建议。

With the development of world trade liberalization,cotton production in China is not only influenced by domestic factors,but also influenced by the international cotton market factors.Through the establishment of double logarithm regression model,this paper studies:the world cotton production and consumption have significant positive impact on the domestic cotton production,and the cotton import and export of domestic cotton production have significant negative effects.And accordingly to the above studies,this paper put forwards some suggestions,such as to increase China's cotton production,and coordinate the relationship between domestic cotton productions with the external environment.