中等收入陷阱的人力资本根源：中国案例

The Human Capital Roots of the Middle-Income Trap:The Case of China

与其他中等收入国家一样,中国在经济增长速度开始放缓的情况下,正面临陷入中等收入陷阱的风险。对跨越或陷入中等收入陷阱的一些国家的经验和教训的分析表明,一国的人力资本投资政策对未来收入分配差距的缩小和经济的可持续发展具有重要的意义。中国目前存在严重的人力资本不平等问题,特别是在农村贫困地区,除了结构性和体制性障碍阻止学生在学校获得将来所需的必要能力外,严重的营养和健康问题也限制了学生人力资本的提升。如果这些问题不能得到解决,就将会在中国农村贫困地区造成严重的人力资本匮乏,并使得不平等问题在未来数十年内难以解决。因此,中国应着手解决农村贫困地区教育、健康、视力低下和营养等问题,以避免在未来落入中等收入陷阱。

China, like other middle-income countries, is facing the challenge of falling into middle-in come trap when the economic growth slows down. By examining systematically the characteristics of countries that have successfully graduated from middle to high income （Graduates） and those that are attempting to do so now （Aspirees）, this paper concludes that investment into human capital is a key to manage it＇s future income inequality and ensure sustained development of the economy. China cur- rently faces huge inequality in human capital, especially in poor rural areas. In discussing the sources of the human capital inequality, in addition to structural and institutional barriers that are discouraging many students （and their parents） from staying in school to achieve the levels of learning that we be- lieve are necessary for preparing individuals for employment in the coming decades, we also identify severe nutritional and health problems, which we believe （unless addressed） are creating serious China＇s human capital deficiencies in poor areas of rural China and locking in decades of hard-to-address inequality. The paper ends with a call for leaders in China （and countries at the same level of income of China） to launch immediately a war on poor education, health, vision care and nutrition as one step in helping such nations avoid the middle-income trap in the coming years.