摘要
把时间序列分析方法引入排土场分析,对弓长岭露天矿排土场边坡位移监测点数据分别建立双对数模型、指数模型、线性模型、3阶多项式模型进行回归分析,找出物理量随时间变化的规律。依托现有实测工程数据,建立时序模型并优化之,将经典ARMA模型推广到ARIMA模型。依据所建模型给出位移预报曲线,并探讨边坡变形行为特征。对揭示边坡系统变形规律,选取最优防护体系具有指导意义,为工程数据分析和数值模拟提供了新思路。
The time-series method is introduced into dump analysis, for monitoring data of dump slope of Gongchangling open-air iron ore mine, the doublelogarithm model, exponential model, linear model, third-order polynomial regression model are established and taken regression analysis, and the laws of physical changes with time are found out. Depending on the current measurement engineering data, the time-series model is established and optimized , and the classical ARMA model is applied to ARIMA model. Based on the established model, the displacement prediction curve is gived, and the slope system deformation characteristics are discussed. It has guiding significance for revealing the deformation law of slope system and selecting the best protection system, and also provides new ideas for the engineering data analysis and numerical simulation.
出处
《勘察科学技术》
2014年第2期5-8,共4页
Site Investigation Science and Technology
