电动汽车充电负荷预测系统研究

Research on load forecasting system for electric vehicle charging

根据规划的电动汽车在未来规模化的应用将对电网产生重要影响,电动汽车充电负荷预测是分析电动汽车接入电网的基础,目前还没有比较成熟的方法。综述电动汽车接入对电网的影响和电动汽车负荷预测的研究现状,分析充电负荷预测的影响因素,并基于分布函数的蒙特卡洛计算模拟,开发一套区域电动汽车充电负荷预测系统,可实现对不同电动汽车种类、不同电池容量、不同充电方式、不同充电频率等情况下的综合预测,为电动汽车接入电网的影响分析和调控策略制订提供理论和技术支持。

With the large-scale application of electric vehicles in the near future, electric vehicles will have an important impact on power grids. Electric vehicle charging load forecasting is the ba- sis of vehicle to grid （V2G） analysis, but there is still no mature forecasting method now. The re- search overview of V2G and the electric load forecasting were firstly summarized in this paper. The fac- tors of further charging load forecasting were analyzed. A regional electric vehicle charging load forecasting software system was developed by the distribution function based Monte Carlo simu- lation. In the load forecasting system, it can realize the comprehensive prediction, which consid- ers electric vehicle types, battery capacity, charging modes and charging frequency. The load forecasting system can be the foundation for control strategies of the electric vehicles access grid.