基于灰色理论的建设工程质量事故预测

The Accident Forecast for Construction Based on Gray Theory

建设工程的质量受到很多制约因素的影响,在分析影响建设工程质量因素的基础上,采用灰色控制理论,通过建立GM(1.1)动态模型预测了事故发生的次数,发现预测的结果和事故实际发生的次数有很好的拟合性.监理人员作为甲方的全权代表运用灰色理论可以作为一种有效的方法对建设工程质量的各种因素进行预测分析,控制建设工程的质量.

Quality of construction projects is affected by many constraints. This paper analyzes the factors to the quality of construction projects on the basis of grey control theory, by the establishment of GM （ 1.1 ） dynamic model to predict the number of accidents. The results show that there are a good number of occurrences of the fit- ting. So gray theory can be used as an effective method for the construction of a variety of factors to predict the quality of analysis, quality control of construction projects.