霸权的联盟逻辑:理解中日博弈中的美国行为

Logic of Hegemony Alliance:Understanding the U.S.Behavior in the Game Between China and Japan

如果说霸权国的核心利益就是护持其体系中霸权地位,那么,如果诱发一场针对挑战国的冲突能够更好地维护其国家的根本利益,霸权国可能会选择支持并乐见其依附者对潜在的挑战国发难。日本改变几十年来同中国在钓鱼岛问题上的政策默契的根本原因是美国重返亚太战略的诱导。2013年12月26日日本首相安倍参拜靖国神社并表明"是时候朝建设新国家迈出一步",这明显可能激化中日现有矛盾并引发东北亚各相关国家的不安,同时也表明日本的行为可能导致美国对美日同盟的失控,对此美国以"失望"一词表明其不会在战略上被日本绑架。可见,当前以美日同盟为核心的东北亚轮辐体系并非是确保该地区和平与安定的压舱石,可能正好与其宣传的结论相反,其更有可能是在某些条件下促使未来10年内中日之间外交僵化、在夹缝中艰难博弈的催化剂。中国若想改变在未来10年内的中日争端中的被动局面或至少避免美国对日本行为的无限度支持,就必须从提升自身战略力量或依靠结盟来增加制衡性力量。

The core interest of hegemonic powers is mostly from the system hegemony.Therefore,if evoking a conflict to the country challenging the hegemony can better safeguard the fundamental national interests of the latter,the hegemony may choose to support and happy to see the potential conflict and attack happen.The U.S.strategy of'pivot to Asia'is the root cause of Japan's change of the tacit over Diaoyu Islands with China.On 26th December,2013,Japanese Prime Minister Abe visited the Yasukuni shrine and expressed that'it's time to move forward to construct a new country',which strengthened the current Sino-Japan conflicts and provoked Asian neighbors.The U.S.declared disappointment and expressed that they would not be strategically kidnapped by Japan.It is obvious that the current Northeast Asian spoke system on the basis of U.S.-Japan alliance is not the ballast of regional peace and stability.The fact is probably on the contrary.For China,it is compulsory to strengthen strategic power aiming at the U.S.and make broader alliances in order to change passiveness in Sino-Japan disputes and avoid the unlimited support to Japan from the U.S.