我国地方债务风险隐患、成因及化解对策

Potential Risk,Causes and Solving Measures for China's Local Governmental Debt

当前,我国地方债务的规模已十分庞大,并呈现不断扩张的趋势,不但偿债压力大、债务结构不合理,而且债务隐性化趋势明显、管理混乱,存在较大的风险隐患。我国地方债务的累积及其风险的扩张,将阻碍经济发展方式的转变,降低经济发展质量,对私人投资产生"挤出效应",使经济保持较高的通胀率,引发高房价问题,不利于收入分配的改革,并恶化政府和金融体系的信用。地方债务风险的成因是多元的,包括财政体制、预算软约束、地方财政收入增长困难、投资拉动型的经济增长方式、政绩考核机制等。控制和化解地方债务风险,在短期可通过资产证券化、引进民间资本和出售地方国有资产方式快速筹集偿债资金以尽快偿债;在长期则必须进行实质性改革,如构建市场化的地方政府融资机制、转变政府职能、改革分税体制、加强中央政府对地方政府举债管理约束、建立债务风险预警机制等。

At present, China ’ s local governmental debt scale is huge, demonstrates the trend of continuously expanding, and has bigger potential risk such as debt payback pressure, unreasonable debt structure, obvious debt implicitness trend and disordered management. The accumulation and risk expansion of China’ s local governmental debt will head off the economic development pattern transition, reduce economic development quality, produce“squeezing out effect” on private investment, make the economy hold higher inflation rate, trigger higher housing price, be harmful to the reform of income distribution and deteriorate the credit of governments and financial system. The causes for local governmental debt are diversified, including financial system, budget soft-constraint, difficult local government finance increase, investment-driven-style economic growth mode, local carders’ political performance evaluation mechanism and so on. Local governmental debt risk can be controlled and solved by rapidly raising the money mechanism for debt payback in short-term such as assets securitization, introduction to private investment and selling state-owned assets, by necessarily implementing practical reform in long-term such as building market-oriented local governmental financing mechanism, changing governmental duty, reforming system of tax distribution, enhancing the management of central government on local governmental debt, building early-warning system for debt risk and so on.