日本财政支出结构对经济增长影响的回归分析(1969～2011)

A Regression Analysis of the Influence of Japan's Fiscal Expenditure Structure on Economic Growth( 1969 ～ 2011)

利用日本1969～2011年间按支出法分类统计的总产出数据进行回归分析，估计财政支出相对规模、财政消费性支出相对规模、财政生产性支出相对规模的产出弹性，并以得出的产出弹性为基础进一步计算财政支出总量、财政消费性支出、财政生产性支出的边际贡献。结果表明，在样本期间内，财政支出对总产出的影响不显著，财政消费性支出对总产出的影响为正，财政生产性支出对总产出的影响为负，而财政支出绝对值及其相对规模、财政消费性支出绝对值、财政生产性支出绝对值及相对规模对总产出的边际贡献都为负，只有财政消费性支出相对规模的边际产出为正值，并且2006年以来实际财政消费性支出大于实际财政生产性支出的边际产出。本研究认为，在日本财政支出规模一定的情况下，财政支出结构应该向消费性支出倾斜，然而从长期来看，财政支出规模应该缩减，其中财政消费性支出和财政生产性支出的规模都应该适度减少。

This paper employs the aggregate output data classified by expenditure from 1969 to 2011 to per- form regression analysis and estimate output elasticities of relative scale of fiscal expenditure, of relative scale of fiscal consumer expenditure, and of relative scale of fiscal productive expenditure. Based on the output clas- ticities, the paper further calculates marginal contribution consumer expenditure and marginal contribution of fiscal impact of fiscal expenditure on aggregate output is gross output is positive, and the impact of fiscal p not rod of fiscal expenditure, marginal contribution of fiscal productive expenditure. In the sample period, the significant, impact of fiscal consumer expenditure on uctive expenditure on aggregate output is negative, while marginal contribution of absolute value of fiscal expenditure and its relative scale, marginal contribution of ab- solute value of fiscal consumer expenditure, marginal contribution of absolute value of fiscal productive ex- penditure and its relative scale to the aggregate output are negative, only marginal product of relative scale of fiscal consumer expenditure is positive and since 2006, the marginal product of actual fiscal consumer expend- iture is greater than fiscal expenditure iture. However, in that of actual fiscal productive expenditure. The results indicate that in the case of Japan scale being stable, the fiscal expenditure structure should be inclined to consumer expend- the long term, the fiscal expenditure scale should be reduced among which the scale of the fiscal consumer expenditure and fiscal productive expenditure should be both reduced moderately .