具有年龄结构的异质元胞自动机HIV传播模型

A Heterogeneous Cellular Automata Model with Age Structure for HIV Transmission

年龄结构影响群体发病率,将群体年龄分为5个阶段,建立扩展的异质元胞自动机模型,研究艾滋病在高发区及普通地区的传播行为。模型中,元胞具有不同的年龄,传染强度依状态改变,结合邻域内个体间致病性接触行为建立邻域元胞影响力函数,改进状态更新规则。仿真结果发现,个体的致病性接触行为、人群密度、元胞影响半径对艾滋病的传播速度及群体感染率具有一定影响,而个体年龄结构则在一定程度上影响群体感染分布情况。

According to statistics , age structure has an effect on the incidence of AIDS .The group can be divided into five categories with different incubations based on different ages .An expanded heterogeneous cellular automata model was built and then HIV transmission in area of high and average infection rate were respectively simulated .In this model , the cellular has dif-ferent ages;the intensity of infection changes with cell state .The influence function of neighborhood considering of the pathogenic contact behavior between neighborhoods was built to improve the rule of status updates .The simulation shows that pathogenic con-tact behavior , crowd density , and radius of influence have certain influences on the spread of HIV transmission; and the age structure has a certain influence on the outbreak of AIDS .