基于EWMA控制图模型的公司财务质量判别

Discrimination of Companies' Financial Quality Based on EWMA Control Chart Model

针对以往基于静态数据的两分类判别法的不足,选取沪深A股公司季报数据,将公司的财务质量分为正常、不稳定和困境3种状况,构建了具有时间累积性的EWMA控制图模型进行判别分析。选取了另外的24家沪深A股公司对模型的判别准确率进行了测试。结果表明,通过构建EWMA控制图模型并划分不同的控制限,可以对多个类型的公司财务质量做出有效的判别。

There are some shortcomings in previous two classification discriminated methods based on static data .A-shares companies in the Shanghai Securities Exchange and the Shenzhen Securities Exchange were selected to construct EWMA control chart model which has characteristic of the time accumulation .The companies＆#39;financial quality was divided into three situations of normal, instability and distress.At last, another 24 A-shares companies in the Shanghai Securities Exchange and the Shenzhen Securities Exchange were chosen to test accuracy rate of the model .Research results show that , it can make effective judgment on the financial quality of multiple types of companies by constructing a EWMA control chart model and dividing into different control limit.