九十年代我国发展对外贸易的思考

CONSIDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE IN THE 1990S

1989年世界经济发展减弱,1990年仍在延续,受海湾危机的影响,可能发生中间性的经济危机,但和平与发展的大趋势不会逆转.1990年世界贸易额创历史高峰,但贸易量增长率比1988年有所下降.1990年预计微降.90年代我国发展外贸机遇与困难并存.本文提出10年外贸发展目标,年增长率前期为7%,后期为8%,比经济增长率高1～2个百分点.到2000年,出口依存度为12%,出口额占世界总额1.8%.并论述达到目标应具有的战略和采取的措施.

The development of the world economy decreased in 1989 and it continued to do so in the 1990. The influence of the Gulf crisis is likely to bring about an intervening economic crisis in the nineties. But eventually peace and development will never deteriotate. It is noted that although the volume of world trade in 1988 was an all-time high, its rate of increase was lower compared to 1988, and it is likely to decrease a little bit in 1990. It is predicted that China in the nineties faces both challenges and difficulties. The author of this paper holds that in the first half of the nineties the annual rate of increase of foreign trade should be 7% and the later half 8%, a 1-2 percentage higher than the economic growth. By the year 2000, exports should make up 12% of China's total production and 1.8% of the total volume of world trade. The author also discusses strategies to reach the goal and measures to be taken in the nineties.