基于逻辑回归的中小企业信用评价研究

SMEs credit evaluation system based on Logistic Regression Model

传统的面向大型企业的信用评价模型对中小企业并不适用。基于此,本文以20家2002至2011年发生财务危机的中小上市公司为样本,20家财务正常的公司为对照样本,通过因子分析选取适当的财务指标对企业信用风险状况进行评价,最后使用logistic回归建立预测企业发生财务危机概率的模型。

Traditional credit evaluation systems are mainly for large corporates rather than small and medium enterprises （SMEs）. Therefore, this article took 20 SMEs experienced financial distress from 2002 to 2011 as samples, and 20 SMEs in regular financial status as the control group. Then factor analysis was used to choose suitable financial indicators to evaluate credit risks of these enterprises. At last, a prediction model for financial distress probability was constructed through the logistic regression model.