中国石油供应安全状态分析与风险预警

Analysis and Warning on Chinese Oil Supply Security

石油安全风险预警是中国石油安全的重要内容,本文采用压力—状态—响应框架建立了中国石油安全风险预警指标体系,基于数据挖掘理论的主成分分析和K-means聚类算法建立中国石油安全风险预警模型,并采用多元回归分析验证模型的有效性。实证研究发现,中国石油供应安全状态近20年来处于较大的波动中。石油消耗强度、国际原油价格、石油对外依存度主要影响着中国石油供应安全。研究结果表明,建立的风险预警模型有效地反映出了中国石油供应安全风险水平的演化及主要因素,其可用于中长期石油供应安全风险预警。

Pre-warning plays an important role in China’s petroleum security. This paper applies pressure-state-response （ PSR ） framework to China’s petroleum security pre-warning indicator system, then establishes China’s petroleum security pre-warning model based on data mining theory of principal component analysis （ PCA） and K-means clustering method. Empirical study has found that China’s petroleum supply security is in large fluctuations in nearly 20 years. Intensity of petroleum consumption, international crude oil prices and dependence on foreign petroleum are the major impact factors of China’s petroleum supply. The study shows that the model can reflect China’s petroleum supply security risk level of evolution and the main factors, and can be used for medium and long-term pre-warning of petroleum supply security risk.