施工导流方案多属性群协商决策

Method of multi-attribute group negotiation decision of construction diversion schemes

针对异质群体参与的施工导流方案风险型多属性决策问题,分析导流方案决策主体面临不同属性时所对应的偏好尺度和评价效用的差异性,引入群体协商集结理论,提出基于可能度矩阵表征的导流方案群决策策略.通过对各属性下导流方案决策主体的非一致性、模糊性意见进行协商集结,计算属性权重的协商区间.基于蒙特卡罗模拟仿真技术,计算随机权重向量下导流方案两两间的优胜概率,得到描述导流方案优胜程度的模糊互补判断矩阵,据此进行备选方案的优先排序,并给出了排序的可信度.实例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性.研究为多属性群决策视角下导流方案的优选提供了理论基础和决策支持.

In allusion to risky multi-attribute decision of construction diversion schemes in which hetero- geneous group participate, analyzing the difference of preference scale and evaluation utility of diversion schemes decision-makers with respect to different attributes. Bringing in the theory of negotiation aggre- gation, diversion schemes group decision strategy characterized by possibility degree matrix was proposed. Through aggregating inconsistent and fuzzy opinions of diversion scheme decision-makers with respect to different attributes, the attributes weight bargaining range was figured up. Based on Monte Carlo sim- ulation technology, the prioritization probability between each alternative pair with respect to random weight vector was cMculated, obtaining the fuzzy complementary judgment matrix describing the degree of superior, and accordingly alternatives in priority order was arranged and the credibility of the ordering was analyzed. A case study is given to verify the feasibility and validity of the method. The study provides theory foundation and decision support for diversion schemes optimization in view of multi-attribute group decision-making.