论人的城镇化与人均公共服务均等化

The Urbanization of Population and Equalizaion of Per Capita Public Service

本文通过对人口普查反映的各地常住人口与户籍人口的差异性分析,认为阻碍人的城镇化看似是户籍制度实则是财政体制问题,因为在省域财政体内农村户口转入城镇早已不成问题,全国现有2.7亿农民工包括抚养人口共约4亿人不能入城,主要就是省级承包式分税制造成地方利益分割的刚性,带来中西部农村人口不能向东部城市迁徙的区域性城乡二元结构所致。据测算,这种新的二元结构致使2010年中国城镇化率滞后了29.58个百分点,相应压缩民生消费达30万亿元之巨,21世纪以来所形成的投资、CDP与财政收入、生态环境等损失约相当于半个东部地区。本文运用《中国统计年鉴》数据,借鉴德国财政平衡方法,探求出了人均公共服务均等化的"标准人"计算公式。实证表明,按"标准人"公式规范化再分配,即可结合国情与国际接轨完善中国特色市场经济体制的分税制,让人口随劳动力迁徙到哪里就把财政公共服务带到哪里,这样发挥市场机制"用脚投票"作用推进人的城镇化,就能解决差距拉大、市场分割、产能过剩和生态环境等问题,以释放中国改革的最大红利。

This paper considers that the obstacle of urbanization is actually the financial system but seemingly the household registration system through the newest difference analysis between the resident population and the household population, because the shifting of rural residents into town in the same provincial finance has already no problem. The current two hundred and seventy million migrant workers and the raising population about a total population of four hundred million cannot enter the cities, because the local interest rigidity of the tax system brings the urban and the rural dualistic structure so that the midwest rural population cannot migrate to the east city. According to the calculations, the new dual structure led to the urbanization of our country falling behind by 29.58 percentage points, and depresses the consumption about 30 trillion yuan（2012）, the loss is equivalent to half of the coast. Using “Chinese Statistical Yearbook” data and consulting the financial balance method of Germany, the article advocates to implement the “standard person” formulation allocation of the regional horizontal fiscal equalization system combining the national conditions with international standards that let people migrate freely with public service ,it can solute the problem of gap, market segmentation and the ecological environment through the improvement of the tax system and the role of “voting with their feet” of market mechanism.