政府规模的扩张偏向与福利效应——理论新假说与实证再检验

Expansion Deviation and Welfare Effect of Government Size——New Hypothesis and Empirical Retest

本文提出适度政府规模福利效应新假说,利用2000—2012年中国省际动态面板数据和系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)进行实证检验。结果发现:①适度政府规模有利于经济增长和社会福利增进,政府规模存在三种效应,当政府规模较小时,增长效应占主导,当政府规模较大时,挤出效应占主导,当政府规模适度时,福利效应占主导;②政府规模对社会福利呈"倒U型"影响,短期扩张有利于经济发展和社会福利提高,但长期膨胀则有损于经济效率和社会公平,中国适度政府规模在0.2左右;③政府规模对社会福利的影响作用大于政府干预作用,由于中国各省份发展条件和发展水平存在显著差异,要防止地方政府规模过分偏离0.2的适度水平而造成地方政府债务规模膨胀、过多挤占市场和宏观经济不稳定。本文为近年来中国各级政府规模的扩张偏向提出了警示与启示。

The paper proposes a new hypothesis of moderate size of government＇s welfare effects, and has carried on the empirical test by using inter-provincial dynamic panel data of 2000-2012 and $YS-GMM method. We find, moderate size of government not only can conducive to economic growth, but also conducive to improve social welfare, There are three effects of the size of government, when the government is small, the growth effect dominates, when government is large, the crowding-ont effect dominates, and when it is moderate, the Welfare effect dominates. Government size affect social welfare and preset “inverted U”, expanding the size of government in short-term can promote economic development and improve the social welfare, but is detrimental to economic efficiency and social justice in the long-term, the moderate size of government is 0.2. The size of government influence on social welfare is greater than the intervention of the government, due to the conditions and level of development of each province are significant differences, to prevent the expansion of the size of local government debt, excessive crowding the market and macroeconomic instability, which caused by the local government size excessive deviation from the modest level of 0.2. The article raise the alert and inspiration for the size expand of the Chinese government at all levels in recent years.