微电网风/光发电功率预测软件的设计与开发

Design and Development of Power Prediction Software of Wind/Photovoltaic in a Micro-Grid

风力发电和光伏发电功率的预测是进行微电网能量调度计划制定的前提。运用基于时间序列法的风/光发电功率预测模型,引用等效平均风速概念,以提高风功率预测的准确度;采取在线滚动建模的方式修正基于时间序列法的预测模型,最后运用天气预报信息修正风/光发电功率预测的误差。设计了风/光发电功率预测软件的功能组成结构,制定了包括超短期、扩展短期与短期预测模块的程序流程,应用实例验证了所开发软件的实用性与有效性。

Micro-grid ＇ s scheduling plan is usually based on the predictable results of the power output of wind htrbine generalion al^d photowoltaic generation. This paper used time series model for wind/phntovoltaie power prediction, took the concept of equivalent average wind speed to improve the aecuraey of wind power prediction, and adopted the way of establishing the model online to correel the model constantly. Finally, the software of weather fi^reeasts was used to correct error to improve the accuracy of the predictable results. The software＇s functional composition was also designed. Flowehart of the procedure was also established, which contains uhra-short-term, extension-short-term and short-tenu predictions. Finally, an example was taken to verify the praetieality and effeetiveness of the software. This work is supported by National High Technology Research anti Development Program of China （863 Program） （2012AA050217）.